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Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
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Audie Award, Business/Personal Development, 2017.
After billions of dollars and 50 years of effort, researchers are finally cracking the code on artificial intelligence. As society stands on the cusp of unprecedented change, Jerry Kaplan unpacks the latest advances in robotics, machine learning, and perception powering systems that rival or exceed human capabilities.Â
Driverless cars, robotic helpers, and intelligent agents that promote our interests have the potential to usher in a new age of affluence and leisure - but, as Kaplan warns, the transition may be protracted and brutal unless we address the two great scourges of the modern developed world: volatile labor markets and income inequality. He proposes innovative, free-market adjustments to our economic system and social policies to avoid an extended period of social turmoil. His timely and accessible analysis of the promise and perils of artificial intelligence is a must-listen for business leaders and policy makers on both sides of the aisle.Â
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 5 hours and 58 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Tantor Audio
Audible.com Release Date: March 15, 2016
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B01CONM4RM
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
For me, I found this book to be one of the most thought provoking books that I have ever read. Mr, Kaplan has placed much thought and most of all research in the field of Al. Basically, he has calculated data and information to explain how this will grow in the future.Each chapter I found meaningful. My favorite chapters were:. Chapter 4 ... The Gods Are Angry. This chapter spoke volumes to me personally because I like to go on the internet and do searches in search engines. Really, until I read this book, I did not give this much thought at all. After I read this chapter, I was shocked to discover the part about synthetic intellects. In fact, this particular chapter, I read twice!. Chapter 8 Take This Job And Automate It - This is a very thought provoking chapter. Mr Kaplan gives excellent examples of how the internet and more are affecting jobs. He gave a great example of attornies...in thus day of going onto the internet and one obtaining a legal form and using it is very true!I also like the fact that the author placed an index in this book. After I read the book, I wanted to go back and look up several subjects.Humans Need Not Apply (hardback version) sample was provided. I agreed to give an unbiased review. In my opinion, I really am happy that I read this book as it is really food for thought. This is a very impressive book and I highly recommend this book.
Jerry Kaplan does for the future what Jared Diamond did for the past: He pulls together our human (or humanoid) fate in sparkling,often hilarious, prose. Kaplan begins by offering the non scientific reader (me) a clear overview of the AI advances that are poised to make human workers obsolete--offering eye popping examples explaining how the pace of technology is destined to overwhelm the human landscape of life and work. He then charts the changes that span FAR more than driverless cars. Mechanical robots (or what Kaplan calls "forged intelligences") will be more adept (and. of course, far more cost effective) than humans at performing every routine job from collecting our garbage to stocking our grocery shelves (and make those physical stores quaint relics of the past). "Synthetic intelligences" (machines that think and analyze information) will outwit humans at making complex diagnoses or writing legal briefs--automating out many of the hapless law school or medical students spending decades accumulating those mountainous student debts .So far readers may be saying " I know all that stuff". Actually, you don't. The real gem of this book is that Kaplan CALCULATES how many people enter the workforce with those mountains of debt and compares their expected salaries. He analyzes the current employment situation for new law school grads and other "knowledge workers". He offers a wealth of data documenting how many jobs are going to be lost... beginning with that prime exemplar (AKA job wrecker), Amazon. I always wanted to know how Amazon evolved, the truth about this behemoth's business model, and how many jobs Amazon has automated out... In this book you will actually get these statistics and much more, as well as learning exactly why those standard government "job growth projection" stats are apt to be totally wrong.In other words, as you read in these other reviews , this book is all about income inequalities and what we can do to in Kaplan's words to slow the transition to making "America the Land of the Pharaohs" ( You ain't seen nothing yet). In fact the chapter--of this title- describing the lifestyles of Kaplan and his much richer colleagues versus one of his hardworking employees is the best in- the- flesh description of income inequalities I've read. Kaplan has the huge advantage of personally knowing these billionaire Silicon Valley movers and shakers--in addition to having a birds eye seat on how these technologies evolved. But, most important, he has a gift for bringing it all home through creative analogies and zinger-like sentences that had me rolling on the floor. So if you like Jared Diamond, or even if you don't know who he is, you will LOVE this landmark book.P.S. I've omitted the fact that Kaplan also suggests answers.. that is, he devises highly innovative policy suggestions to make playing field less steep that come closer to attacking the roots of the problem and go well beyond the current mantras such as increasing access to college or raising the minimum wage......
A sizeable of very good books on the impact of technology on jobs have come out within the past 4 or so years written by a number of individual eminently qualified individuals. Such books have included Tyler Cowen’s “Average is Overâ€, Eric Brynjolfoson and Andrew McAfee’s “The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologiesâ€, Jaron Lanier’s “Who Owns the Future?†and Martin Ford’s “Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Futureâ€. These authors represent a wide variety of fields, from academic economists (Cowen and Brynjolfson), software programmers and engineers (McAfee and Lanier) and financiers involved in angel funding of high tech firms (Ford has a graduate degree in engineering and an MBA and is involved in finding and funding high tech companies with new and innovative technologies). Unfortunately, none of these individuals, simultaneously, have a technical degree, experience “creating†in the high-tech field and an academic background. Dr Kaplan, the author of “Humans Need Not Applyâ€, however does have such a background and this reviewer thought that, for that reason, he may be able to shed a different perspective on the topic or new insights from a different set of angles.Reading the introduction, this reviewer was happy to see that this is the type of book the author himself wrote with the purpose of fulfilling. On p. 16 of the introduction (hardcopy edition), Dr Kaplan writes: “ My goal in this book is to equip you with the intellectual tools, ethical foundation, and psychological framework required to successfully navigate these challenges [challenges of seeing how technology will impact employment]…Of course many talented and thoughtful writers have already rung the alarm about the risks of recent technological advances…My goal here is to add a different voice to the growing chorus of concern, mine from the perspective of the technology entrepreneur.â€Dr Kaplan then goes about putting forth the argument, very persuasively, that technological advances on many fronts will lead to massive unemployment. For example, self-driving automobiles and trucks will put millions of vehicle drivers out of work and DIDO technology (distributed input, distributed output) will put the installers of internet cables out of work. He believes that this automation will lead to very widespread unemployment and will threaten the livelihoods of the overwhelming majority of the workforce. The proverbial 99% to be more exact. This is the same conclusion reached by every one of the other authors mentioned above.The only disappointing fact in this book is that the discussion of the relevant technologies is not very in-depth. For a much more in-depth analysis this reviewer highly recommends the other books cited above, in particular Ford’s “The Rise of the Robots†instead. Then again Ford’s book, as most of the other books mentions above, are about double the length of Kaplan’s. Ford’s book for example, is about 370 pages in length (full size text pages) while Kaplan’s is less than half that (about 210 small pages).Dr Kaplan then goes about spelling out a possible “solution†to this problem. This is two pronged. One involves granting workers a kind of mortgage grant in terms of education spending that will enable them to re-tool. This is analogous to Milton Friedman’s idea of the govt providing people with educations and, simultaneously, making the payback terms a function of their future income streams. However there are 2 problems here. The first is that technology does not advance so quickly that that workers cannot gain skills quicker than they are rendered obsolete by technology. Secondly, that there are actually positions to train for. Hence this solution is very problematic.The second half of the prong involves granting workers a capital ownership interest in the companies producing the automation. This will provide those workers with dividend incomes that will enable them to survive in a world with massive unemployment. Plus it will not deter their incentives to work (the dividend payments would not be very high) and the incentives for technological progress would not be negated.This sounds nice but does have a number of problems associated with it, unfortunately none of which the author examines. One is that the owners of these companies would have to agree with having their ownership in their own companies seriously diluted. A second problem would be that doing this may so inflate capital ownership that the returns of capital would be significantly curtailed, thus making it difficult for this strategy to provide the unemployed (the overwhelming majority of society) with a sufficient income to to survive on.Thus Dr. Kaplan’s solution seems very weak. Then again so do those of many of the other authors mentioned above to the problem of massive unemployment. For example, Brynjolfson and McAfee, as solutions, recommend massive increases in educational spending and a distribution of income via a more progressive tax regime. Lanier proposes that companies benefiting from the use of individual’s “data†provide those individuals with an income stream for its use (there is no discussion of whether or not this will be enough to provide the unemployment with an income to survive though). Ford proposes the Austian Economist Frederick Hayek’s idea of a “minimum income†whereby capital owners will be taxed (presumably heavily) in order to distribute income to the unemployed. Of course this implies that the wealthy are willing to do this without a fight or that they do not support a Pinochet of Franco to prevent this very thing from happening. Not something to have great confidence in.In short, the book comes to the same conclusion as many other authors regarding the impact of technology on employment and provides a different “solution†to the problem albeit this solution has significant problems as do the solutions proposed by the other authors mentioned above. Not a book to inspire much confidence in the future in. Then again the facts seem to be such that a dystopian future lies in the future for much of humanity.
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